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A Treatise on Probability   By: (1883-1946)

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A Treatise on Probability, by John Maynard Keynes

CONTENTS PART I fundamental ideas CHAPTER I page The Meaning of Probability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 CHAPTER II Probability in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge 9 CHAPTER III The Measurement of Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 CHAPTER IV The Principle of Indifference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 CHAPTER V Other Methods of Determining Probabilities . . . . . . . . . 71 vi CONTENTS vii CHAPTER VI page The Weight of Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 CHAPTER VII Historical Retrospect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 CHAPTER VIII The Frequency Theory of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 CHAPTER IX The Constructive Theory of Part I. Summarized. . . . . . 123 PART II fundamental theorems CHAPTER X Introductory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 CHAPTER XI The Theory of Groups, with special reference to Logical Consistence, Inference, and Logical Priority. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 CHAPTER XII The Definitions and Axioms of Inference and Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 A TREATISE ON PROBABILITY viii CHAPTER XIII page The Fundamental Theorems of Necessary Inference . 153 CHAPTER XIV The Fundamental Theorems of Probable Inference . . 161 CHAPTER XV Numerical Measurement and Approximation of Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 CHAPTER XVI Observations on the Theorems of Chapter XIV. and their Developments, including Testimony . . . . . . . . . 188 CHAPTER XVII Some Problems in Inverse Probability, including Averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 PART III induction and analogy CHAPTER XVIII Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 CHAPTER XIX The Nature of Argument by Analogy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 CONTENTS ix CHAPTER XX page The Value of Multiplication of Instances, or Pure Induction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 CHAPTER XXI The Nature of Inductive Argument Continued. . . . . . . . 279 CHAPTER XXII The Justification of these Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 CHAPTER XXIII Some Historical Notes on Induction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 Notes on Part III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 PART IV some philosophical applications of probability CHAPTER XXIV The Meanings of Objective Chance, and of Randomness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 CHAPTER XXV Some Problems arising out of the Discussion of Chance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 A TREATISE ON PROBABILITY x CHAPTER XXVI page The Application of Probability to Conduct. . . . . . . . . . . 351 PART V the foundations of statistical inference CHAPTER XXVII The Nature of Statistical Inference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371 CHAPTER XXVIII The Law of Great Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 CHAPTER XXIX The Use of à priori Probabilities for the Prediction of Statistical Frequency—the Theorems of Bernoulli, Poisson, and Tchebycheff. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382 CHAPTER XXX The Mathematical use of Statistical Frequencies for the Determination of Probability à posteriori—the Methods of Laplace... Continue reading book >>




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