The Mentor: The Weather Serial Number 110; 1 July, 1916   By: Charles Fitzhugh Talman

THE MENTOR

THE WEATHER

By C. F. TALMAN Of The United States Weather Bureau

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE $3.00 PER YEAR

FIFTEEN CENTS A COPY

Old Probabilities

Shall tomorrow's weather be fair or foul? Blow wind blow moistly from the South, for I go afishing. "Nay, good friend," exclaims the golfer, "the day must be dry and the wind in the west." The farmer moistens his finger and points it toward the sky. "Rain, come, quickly, for my crops," is his prayer. But the maiden's voice is full of pleading: "Let the sun shine tomorrow that my heart may be light on my wedding day."

And so, through the days and seasons, humanity with all its varied needs, turns anxiously, entreatingly to Old Probabilities. And how is it possible for him to satisfy the conflicting demand? He may, on the same day, please the farmer in the West, the fisherman in the South, the golfer in the northern hills, and the bride in the eastern town. But how can he suit them all in one locality on a single day? Old Probabilities is willing and he loves humanity, but his powers and privileges are limited. There are those who say that it is due to the kind endeavors of Old Probabilities to satisfy everybody that our weather has at times become so strangely mixed.

Old Probabilities is a gentle family name and came out of the affection of the people. The name was a matter of pleasantry. It was given to the Chief of the United States Weather Bureau when the department was first established by Congress, and its source lay in the phrase, "It is probable," with which all the weather predictions began. But Old Probabilities, genial prophet and lover of his fellow men, is passing away, for the officer who organized the Weather Bureau became in time displeased with the name and changed the form of the daily prediction so as to read, "The indications are." The phrase is formal and severe. There is naught but cold comfort in it. Our hearts turn back fondly to Old Probabilities and his friendly assurance: "It is probable that tomorrow will be fair."

[Illustration: Chickamauga Park, Tenn., in an Ice Storm]

THE WEATHER

By CHARLES FITZHUGH TALMAN

Librarian of the U. S. Weather Bureau

THE MENTOR · DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE · JULY 1, 1916

MENTOR GRAVURES

CENTRAL OFFICE OF THE U. S. WEATHER BUREAU, WASHINGTON, D. C. A SIMPLE WEATHER STATION A MAJESTIC CUMULUS CLOUD THE OBSERVATORY ON MONTE ROSA LAUNCHING A METEOROLOGICAL KITE THE EFFECTS OF SNOW AND ICE THE CAMPUS, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY

[Entered as second class matter, March 10, 1913, at the postoffice at New York, N. Y., under the act of March 3, 1879. Copyright, 1916, by The Mentor Association, Inc.]

It is easy to lay too much stress upon the unimportant aspects of weather. It furnishes a bit of conversation over the teacups; it accentuates the twinges of rheumatism; it spoils a holiday. All this, however, is mere byplay.

The real work of the weather the work that explains the existence of costly weather bureaus, such as the one upon which our Government spends more than a million and a half dollars annually is momentous beyond calculation. Consider such facts and figures as these: